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GUARDED
Trend: stable

Africa · updated 1h ago

Sahel & Sudan

Civil war in Sudan and junta-led Sahel states drawing in foreign powers.

Sudan's war remains active, with unverified reports of army advances near sensitive border areas. Evidence of a new interstate expansion or increased great-power confrontation is limited; this rating does not measure the conflict's humanitarian severity.

Sudan SAFRSFWagner/Africa CorpsJuntas

Timeline

▲ SEV 3· Social· Africa1h ago

Fwd from @

A partisan conflict channel claims Sudanese army advances in North Kordofan and near Chad, suggesting continued fighting while leaving territorial details unverified.

Telegram @rybar_in_english ↗

■ SEV 2· Repository· Africa2h ago

THE WAR POST — Full Conflict History & Research Archive

A conflict archive flags Sudan fighting and Sahel insurgencies, including Africa Corps activity. It provides no sufficiently specific new development to establish an increase in regional war risk.

thewarpost.com ↗

▲ SEV 2· Social· Sudan10h ago

Tinubu says during Mecca visit* *Plane crashed near Trump's Florida

A miscellaneous Facebook digest claims Sudan's army leader rejected talks with the RSF. If accurate, this would indicate a diplomatic obstacle, but the fragmented source offers very low-confidence evidence.

facebook.com ↗

Threat scores are AI estimates from open sources — not official intelligence
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